Predictions for 2026

 

                                      My predictions from a year ago for end of year, 2025:

                                       Dow Jones          45169

                                       S and P                6275

                                       NASDAQ           22530

                                       Unemployed        5.2%

                                       Microsoft             440

                                       Texas Crude Oil    90

                                       CPI                       3%

                                         

                                         Actual numbers for end of 2025:

                                                          

                                        Dow Jones          48063

                                        S and P                6845.5

                                        NASDAQ            23242

                                        Unemployed        4.6%

                                        Microsoft      483.62

                                        Texas Crude Oil   57.46

                                         CPI                      2.7%

                                     Predicted numbers for end of 2026:

                                                          

                                        Dow Jones         50000

                                        S and P               7200

                                        NASDAQ           25000

                                        Unemployed       5%

                                        Microsoft            500

                                        Texas Crude Oil   70

                                        CPI                     4%

This coming year, I predict a downturn in the market due to reappraisal of AI in the spring, followed by a mild revival by the end of the year. Trump will have a bad year, first with the Supreme Court, then with overwhelming victories by the Democratic party in both houses of Congress. As the year concludes, Trump will have resigned, ostensibly for health reasons, and the president will be JD Vance. The Ukraine war will continue. 

The Eagles will be in the playoffs but not the Superbowl. Tariffs will stay with us as the Democrats discover in future years that it provides income for programs they want without the political consequences of having to increase the regular income tax. 

Happy New Year!

I have swag

 

Today was a cold and windy day and I came to the supermarket dressed for the weather. I was waltzing through the aisles looking for lemon in a squeeze bottle. A young lady came up to me and exclaimed, "I love your swag! You are so perfectly put together. If you were in New York photographers would want to take your picture!"

I said, "But this coat is thirty years old".  

I have photographed what I was wearing. A crummy wool cap. A scarf I bought in Goodwill Industries forty years ago. A stained Field and Stream ski jacket from the eighties. I also was wearing a Levi pair of dad jeans, white socks, and sneakers. I had no idea I was wearing the latest in hipster fashion. 

My uncle Lawrence used to wear a tweed suit he probably bought after World War 2 ended. My mother said he wore clothing so out of date that it became fashionable again.  As we get older, we become like our relatives. 

Christmas letters, revisited

 Just got a Christmas letter! Here's an oldie I wrote about the genre. Yes the plant is still alive. 

Divorce

 

Lately I have been wondering if the norm for the middle class international family has changed. When I was a kid, the norm was Mother, Father, and the kids. TV situation comedies reflected this. Now I notice when watching network tv, Netflix and Hulu, that the norm is divorced couples trying to raise kids with the help or hindrance of grandma and grandpa. Mother and Father both have important jobs, or at least Mother does. Father is more likely to be unemployed. The conflict involves trying to maintain highly demanding kids along with highly demanding workplaces.  

Teachers are also much more likely to voice opinions about the kids than when I was a child. Back then, the parents talked to the parents during back-to-school night and perhaps when the children did something really bad.

I guess television is trying to depict family life as it exists today. First comes baby carriage, then comes marriage, then comes divorce. I've always felt left out socially since I've never been divorced.  I've been told its not as much fun as it seems on tv.