2021 Predictions

 

Now it is time to look back at this historic year and contemplate the future. The pandemic was completely unpredicted, but the market behaved in ways that, except for some scary moments in the spring, maintained the holdings of those lucky enough to stay invested. 

Entity:              Dec. 31, 2020      My prediction from a year ago:

Dow Jones               30606             30000
S and P                      3756               3500
NAS                           12888              9100
Oil                              48.42               70
Unemployed             6.7%               4.5%
Microsoft                  222.42               170

When you take all into consideration, the market did quite well. As usual, I underestimated things. I do give myself credit for predicting Biden as the next president.  Not a good year for the little guy, though. 

My predictions for Dec. 31, 2021:

Dow Jones         31000

S and P               3900

NASDAQ           15000

Oil                      60    

Unemployed        5.5%

Microsoft            240

My prediction is for a return to normalcy. Biden will be a disappointment, but  he can't walk on water. Jalen Hurts will turn out to be popular quarterback for the Eagles and he will obtain a wild card for the team, but the team will lose its first playoff game. Next year interest rates will remain low and we will continue to buy most of our goods from China. The suburbs will gain value in real estate terms but the cities will struggle from lost revenues. Murphy will be re-elected Governor of New Jersey. 

Entering the Apple universe

 

Like many of us, mid December I started getting packages from Amazon. Some of them I opened, but one or two had warnings of "Do not open before Christmas". These I opened on the 23rd of December, close enough. 

I got the usual run of shirts, pajamas, toilet bowl lighters, and wool balls to make my laundry static free. Then I opened a large box. Ho! I got an Apple I pad!

Thus, jarringly, I was setting foot in a universe I have not explored since I had to maintain Macintoshes in the children's library in the 90s. I was entering a new world. A world, perhaps no stranger than the world of Linux, but a new world nonetheless. 

First I was told that my wireless connection had "weak security". Apparently I was supposed to have a wpa3 connection instead of the cable connection I had. However, after a few trials I was able to get online and even signed up for a free year of Apple TV. 

Using an I Pad is sort of like being in Singapore. Things run very efficiently but the rules are different in ways that may not be apparent. You can not just log onto the Internet. You need an app to run Google. You need a special app to run Facebook. You need an app to run YouTube. I did have a Face time conversation with my nephew in Texas. He now has a beard. 

I was waiting for the demand for payment to kick in. So far I have satisfied them that I have a PayPal account and have yet to buy anything. I am not cheap but once, when visiting Japan, I commented that the prices in Tokyo were not too bad. My host commented, "Sure, but you never buy anything!"

A Christmas Story

 I was going on a night hike through one of the towns in New Jersey that is known for its Christmas house displays. My ears detected in the back row two damsels discussing how much they enjoyed the Christmas story with its bee bee guns and other adventures. I started to talk about how that program is based on a short story by Jean Shepherd. None of the group ever heard of Jean Shepherd. I started talking about him but was interrupted by glees of delight upon coming upon a decorated reindeer. 

I started listening to the Jean Shepherd radio shows when I was about thirteen. The shows are available, sporadically, on the Internet, including YouTube. Here is Jean S. reading the story from which the tv show is based. 

Here is an old blog I wrote about him. 

Georgia on our minds

 According to the Associated Press, we can expect to see $500 million dollars spent on the upcoming Georgia senate race. This money will be directed at the 7.2 million registered voters, 4.9 million who voted in November of this year. That's approximately one hundred dollars per vote. 

Of course the fair citizens of Georgia have had thrusted upon them the fate of the country because a Democratic sweep could put them in charge of the all important Senate. Otherwise we can only expect a paltry part of Biden's programs will become law. 

I can imagine myself in a discount shoe store in South Atlanta looking at Oxfords when a man comes up to me and offers me a hundred dollars to vote a certain way. The fate of the country is important but a hundred dollars could buy a lot of Christmas presents. 

Rather than accosting people while they are shopping, the public of the Peach state is hearing campaign adds on the radio, tv, and other forms of media from the time they wake up to the time they retire at night. Not to mention the robocalls. 

Although they don't want to sound like they are discouraging voting, I'm sure many Democrats wouldn't mind if their Republican counterparts would be so mad at the presidential results they refuse to vote at all. Of course every cloud has a silver lining. In times to come I predict we will see a  major overhaul of Hartsfield Airport with new found federal money.