How will 2024 work out

A year ago, I prognosticated a moderate increase in the market. I was far too pessimistic compared to what actually happened.  

My predictions for December 31, 2023:

Dow Jones           36000

S and P                4500

NASDAQ           10800

Unemployed         5%

Microsoft             300

Texas Crude Oil    90

CPI                       5%

Here are the end of year numbers for 2023:

Dow Jones           37690

S and P                4770

NASDAQ           15011

Unemployed         3.7%

Microsoft             376

Texas Crude Oil    71.32

CPI                       3.1%

Here are my predictions for the end of year 2024:

Dow Jones           40000

S and P                4850

NASDAQ           17800

Unemployed         5%

Microsoft             400

Texas Crude Oil    90

CPI                       3%

Recommendation: Small cap mutual funds 

In 2024 the Eagles will get killed off in the playoffs, Biden will be re-elected, the media will tire of AI but reference librarians will be nervous about their jobs. Russia will sign a treaty giving them Crimea and some land in eastern Ukraine, but NATO type troops will sit at the hard border guaranteeing most of that country relative security. 

Financial predictions 2018

Here's a summary I found from the The Economic Forecast Agency. For the sake of accuracy, here is a  link to last years prediction if you want to double-check any of my facts and previous predictions. Here 's an oldie but goodie from 2010. Below are the numbers from last years blog.

In red are the numbers at the close of today, the last business day of 2016. In black are my predictions from last year and  this time next year.

Entity      12/31/16     My prediction a year ago                                                   
                                                Prediction a year from now.
S and P     2239             2100                                      2400
Dow         19763          18500                                    20100
NAS          5383            5000                                      5500
MSFT        63.55           60                                         60
Oil             53.89           60                                          60
Unemployed  4.4%       5%                                         4.3%

 I also said, "So it looks like I under priced the market. This year I think things will get better too, at least for those of us who dabble in such things."
[Snippet from 2017 predictions blog] I also under priced the market in 2017.

Here are the numbers at the end of 2017 with my predictions from a year ago and for this time in 2018.

Entity      12/30/17     My prediction a year ago     Prediction a year from now.
S and P     2680              2400                                    2450
Dow         24719            20100                                   23000 
NAS          6738                5500                                  6800
MSFT        85.48 *           60                                      70
Oil             64.5                 60                                     80
Unemployed  4.1%       4.3%                                      4.5%
*after hours price 12/30/17 afternoon

 Yes I'm afraid that although the tax cuts will help the market a bit, the instability in the Mideast will result in higher energy prices, plus we can anticipate higher interest rates. Europe, our own "mad king" and an unpredictable scene overall will  make for some downwinds. Yes for the first time in the history of this blog I am predicting a retreat for the market. A big downsing in October and a moderate recovery in full swing by the end. Still, however, a negative year.

On other points, the Eagles will look better in the playoff games than predicted, but lose the last one and ultimately not go to the Superbowl.

Editor's note: I can't believe I used the term "downwinds" in an article. Need to cut down on my intake of CNBC.  I also notice that this blog demonstrates an excellent example of burying the lead. My that cheeseboard looks tempting. Happy New Years to my many blogger readers. We almost have a table!