Saturday, December 31, 2016

Predictions end of year 2017

This year holds with it much uncertainty as we see the safety net come tumbling down and a follower of the Russian state take control of our country. The conventional wisdom is that it will be a good year for stocks and the capitalist class. The calendar dictates it is time for my annual economic predictions, so here we are.

In red are the numbers at the close of today, the last business day of 2016. In black are my predictions from last year and  this time next year.

Entity      No. today     My prediction a year ago     Prediction a year from now.
S and P     2239             2100                                      2400
Dow         19763          18500                                    20100
NAS          5383            5000                                      5500
MSFT        63.55           60                                         60
Oil             53.89           60                                          60
Unemployed  4.4%       5%                                         4.3%

So it looks like I under priced the market. This year I think things will get better too, at least for those of us who dabble in such things.

The Philadelphia Eagles will get in the playoffs this year. The left wing of the country will be noisy and hold lots of demonstrations in the coming year. For the Trump voters it will be a nerve wracking time, following the old adage "be careful what you wish for". Happy New Years. May we have a nuclear free winter.

No comments:

Post a Comment