Financial predictions 2018

Here's a summary I found from the The Economic Forecast Agency. For the sake of accuracy, here is a  link to last years prediction if you want to double-check any of my facts and previous predictions. Here 's an oldie but goodie from 2010. Below are the numbers from last years blog.

In red are the numbers at the close of today, the last business day of 2016. In black are my predictions from last year and  this time next year.

Entity      12/31/16     My prediction a year ago                                                   
                                                Prediction a year from now.
S and P     2239             2100                                      2400
Dow         19763          18500                                    20100
NAS          5383            5000                                      5500
MSFT        63.55           60                                         60
Oil             53.89           60                                          60
Unemployed  4.4%       5%                                         4.3%

 I also said, "So it looks like I under priced the market. This year I think things will get better too, at least for those of us who dabble in such things."
[Snippet from 2017 predictions blog] I also under priced the market in 2017.

Here are the numbers at the end of 2017 with my predictions from a year ago and for this time in 2018.

Entity      12/30/17     My prediction a year ago     Prediction a year from now.
S and P     2680              2400                                    2450
Dow         24719            20100                                   23000 
NAS          6738                5500                                  6800
MSFT        85.48 *           60                                      70
Oil             64.5                 60                                     80
Unemployed  4.1%       4.3%                                      4.5%
*after hours price 12/30/17 afternoon

 Yes I'm afraid that although the tax cuts will help the market a bit, the instability in the Mideast will result in higher energy prices, plus we can anticipate higher interest rates. Europe, our own "mad king" and an unpredictable scene overall will  make for some downwinds. Yes for the first time in the history of this blog I am predicting a retreat for the market. A big downsing in October and a moderate recovery in full swing by the end. Still, however, a negative year.

On other points, the Eagles will look better in the playoff games than predicted, but lose the last one and ultimately not go to the Superbowl.

Editor's note: I can't believe I used the term "downwinds" in an article. Need to cut down on my intake of CNBC.  I also notice that this blog demonstrates an excellent example of burying the lead. My that cheeseboard looks tempting. Happy New Years to my many blogger readers. We almost have a table!

Cruel Christmas gifts

By now we've looked at our stash from the holidays and started to evaluate them. Every year people get the greatest pleasure of the holiday, giving cruel Christmas gifts. These are the gifts that are the most fun to give and the least fun to receive.

We all know inactive people who's main exercise is walking from the car to the bar. For them, an exercise bicycle is the solution. They'll use it a few times, then it will perch, collecting dust in the basement making our friends feel guilty every time they walk by it to do the laundry.

For the cousin who always complains she never learned to paint, a beginner's paint set. She'll try it once or twice, give up, and feel annoyed with herself every time she passes it in the sewing room. Ditto for clarinets for the would be musicians. Clarinets are incredibly difficult to play for the beginner.

Items that are difficult to set up are also a great cruel Christmas gift. Electronic toys that have to be configured with blue tooth to a computer are a good example. Many a Christmas dinner has been ruined because all the men refused to leave the game room until the Fitbit or Xbox was configured, leaving cold turkey and stuffing on the dining room table.

Many of us are watching our cholesterol these days. For us, a box from Hickory Farms will do the trick. My brother loved giving these to my mother after she went on a low salt diet. Have an uncle who is cutting down on his drinking? A bottle of Jack Daniels will do the trick.

By the time most of you see this blog Christmas will be past and the travails of the new year, another Trumpian year, will be upon us.  Don't trip over those shoes that don't fit, return them!

Prince Philip doesn't like the cut of your jib

One thing I have learned from watching the Crown is that, among men, Britain had, at least back in the day, a demarcation between men and tweeds. Prince Philip was a man. He had served in the navy and as a boy took cold showers at Cheam. If he met a man he first inquired about what he did in the war.

Poor Prince Philip must have hated the Beatles and all the rest of the longhairs that got so much attention in the 60's. No military service to speak of, fairy locks, and disrespectful to boot, swinging London must have been appalling to a man who had so much respect for God and country.

My favorite character in the Crown, so far, is the photographer. At least he had a real job. A modern man, Lord Snowdon was a thorn in the side of poor martyred Princess Margaret and a double thorn in the side of the monarch. Thanks to the Crown and the PBS series on Queen Victoria I am now a complete expert on British history and can recite the pros and cons of the Suez controversy.

The man who knew Huncke

For Christmas I was given a copy of the original un-edited "scroll" version of On the Road by  Jack Kerouac. I remember reading the official version of this book while a senior in high school. It talks about the pleasures of hitchhiking, traveling aimlessly, hanging out with hobos and wild women. It made many a youngster admire the life described.

As a college student I hung out with some bearded men at the dorm who talked about the Beat writers, Rimbaud, Henry Miller and others of that ilk. The leader of the gang was the older guy who owned the paperback used book store on George Street in New Brunswick. He was a reformed addict, had some beat oriented first editions and had claimed to know Herbert Huncke.

After graduating with my BA in English the only job I could find was selling hot dogs at Two Guys and through CETA and some family connections I got a minimum wage job working at a public library. Later on I went to library school, got my MLS, and then found out all the school teachers who couldn't get jobs had become librarians in an overcrowded field. I was determined though, and unlike most people, I could relocate.

New Years Eve I spend in New Brunswick with the old bearded gang. The man who knew Huncke was there. He was living in Denver and wanted me to come there. "Come on man, move to Denver! There's plenty of jobs out there. You've got the mountains, cheap rent, and beautiful women".
. 


I remembered On the Road, then, and decided to follow the beat trail and go to Denver. Like Jack Kerouac I would move to Denver, have adventures, and get a high paying librarian position.

I packed all of my belongings that fit into the Ford Falcon my father gave me (he told me the car was mine if I paid for the brake job). I left for Denver. I picked up a hitch hiker that had a baby. After two days of driving and a night in Hays Kansas, I arrived in Denver. I stayed in a flea bitten hotel downtown and made copies of my resume.

I had only an address for the man who knew Huncke. He apparently hung out at the Muddy Waters of the Platte and worked in the used book store attached to the coffee house. When I got there it was too early and the coffee house was closed. Next door was a building painted in psychedelic colors. I figured there might be a connection between the two places.

I walked in and heard his voice. He was talking, the man who knew Huncke. He was trying to borrow money from the man standing in the doorway of an apartment. I was tempted to flee but I didn't and met up with him. He turned out to be a good, if erratic, friend. I outlasted him in Denver by five years.

America needs to have more babies

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan announced today that the problem with Americans is that we need to have more babies.

Susan: Boy, I'm beat. I need to get some sleep.
Frank: What do you say honey, want to have a baby?
Susan: You can go brush your teeth, Frank, that's the last thing I want to do is have a baby.
Frank: But Susan, the Speaker of the House said that 'Americans need to have more babies'.
Susan: And who's going to pay for these babies?
Frank: I dunno. Just want to do what's best for the country.

Guess it's time we all get together and have more babies. The Speaker of the House said so.

I guess they think I'm a Republican

Ever since I donated money to the campaign of Georgia's Jon Osoff I have been receiving money pleads from Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats. Somehow I got on a Republican list too. Maybe it was my blog from a few years ago. This morning I awoke with an email inviting me to stay at Trump's hotel. I know it's just a contest but it would be fun to have a breakfast brunch with Ivanka.

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Booze and movies

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/booze-women-movies_us_5a25ca7ae4b086e4e503d75c

Apparently Senator Grasley justifies the ending of the estate tax by saying those of us who never had to pay an estate tax spend it all on wine, women and song. Here is a cute article about a man who spends all his money on liquor and the movies. I think living in unionized states also is a sin that needs to be corrected.