Financial predictions 2018

Here's a summary I found from the The Economic Forecast Agency. For the sake of accuracy, here is a  link to last years prediction if you want to double-check any of my facts and previous predictions. Here 's an oldie but goodie from 2010. Below are the numbers from last years blog.

In red are the numbers at the close of today, the last business day of 2016. In black are my predictions from last year and  this time next year.

Entity      12/31/16     My prediction a year ago                                                   
                                                Prediction a year from now.
S and P     2239             2100                                      2400
Dow         19763          18500                                    20100
NAS          5383            5000                                      5500
MSFT        63.55           60                                         60
Oil             53.89           60                                          60
Unemployed  4.4%       5%                                         4.3%

 I also said, "So it looks like I under priced the market. This year I think things will get better too, at least for those of us who dabble in such things."
[Snippet from 2017 predictions blog] I also under priced the market in 2017.

Here are the numbers at the end of 2017 with my predictions from a year ago and for this time in 2018.

Entity      12/30/17     My prediction a year ago     Prediction a year from now.
S and P     2680              2400                                    2450
Dow         24719            20100                                   23000 
NAS          6738                5500                                  6800
MSFT        85.48 *           60                                      70
Oil             64.5                 60                                     80
Unemployed  4.1%       4.3%                                      4.5%
*after hours price 12/30/17 afternoon

 Yes I'm afraid that although the tax cuts will help the market a bit, the instability in the Mideast will result in higher energy prices, plus we can anticipate higher interest rates. Europe, our own "mad king" and an unpredictable scene overall will  make for some downwinds. Yes for the first time in the history of this blog I am predicting a retreat for the market. A big downsing in October and a moderate recovery in full swing by the end. Still, however, a negative year.

On other points, the Eagles will look better in the playoff games than predicted, but lose the last one and ultimately not go to the Superbowl.

Editor's note: I can't believe I used the term "downwinds" in an article. Need to cut down on my intake of CNBC.  I also notice that this blog demonstrates an excellent example of burying the lead. My that cheeseboard looks tempting. Happy New Years to my many blogger readers. We almost have a table!

Cruel Christmas gifts

By now we've looked at our stash from the holidays and started to evaluate them. Every year people get the greatest pleasure of the holiday, giving cruel Christmas gifts. These are the gifts that are the most fun to give and the least fun to receive.

We all know inactive people who's main exercise is walking from the car to the bar. For them, an exercise bicycle is the solution. They'll use it a few times, then it will perch, collecting dust in the basement making our friends feel guilty every time they walk by it to do the laundry.

For the cousin who always complains she never learned to paint, a beginner's paint set. She'll try it once or twice, give up, and feel annoyed with herself every time she passes it in the sewing room. Ditto for clarinets for the would be musicians. Clarinets are incredibly difficult to play for the beginner.

Items that are difficult to set up are also a great cruel Christmas gift. Electronic toys that have to be configured with blue tooth to a computer are a good example. Many a Christmas dinner has been ruined because all the men refused to leave the game room until the Fitbit or Xbox was configured, leaving cold turkey and stuffing on the dining room table.

Many of us are watching our cholesterol these days. For us, a box from Hickory Farms will do the trick. My brother loved giving these to my mother after she went on a low salt diet. Have an uncle who is cutting down on his drinking? A bottle of Jack Daniels will do the trick.

By the time most of you see this blog Christmas will be past and the travails of the new year, another Trumpian year, will be upon us.  Don't trip over those shoes that don't fit, return them!

Prince Philip doesn't like the cut of your jib

One thing I have learned from watching the Crown is that, among men, Britain had, at least back in the day, a demarcation between men and tweeds. Prince Philip was a man. He had served in the navy and as a boy took cold showers at Cheam. If he met a man he first inquired about what he did in the war.

Poor Prince Philip must have hated the Beatles and all the rest of the longhairs that got so much attention in the 60's. No military service to speak of, fairy locks, and disrespectful to boot, swinging London must have been appalling to a man who had so much respect for God and country.

My favorite character in the Crown, so far, is the photographer. At least he had a real job. A modern man, Lord Snowdon was a thorn in the side of poor martyred Princess Margaret and a double thorn in the side of the monarch. Thanks to the Crown and the PBS series on Queen Victoria I am now a complete expert on British history and can recite the pros and cons of the Suez controversy.

The man who knew Huncke

For Christmas I was given a copy of the original un-edited "scroll" version of On the Road by  Jack Kerouac. I remember reading the official version of this book while a senior in high school. It talks about the pleasures of hitchhiking, traveling aimlessly, hanging out with hobos and wild women. It made many a youngster admire the life described.

As a college student I hung out with some bearded men at the dorm who talked about the Beat writers, Rimbaud, Henry Miller and others of that ilk. The leader of the gang was the older guy who owned the paperback used book store on George Street in New Brunswick. He was a reformed addict, had some beat oriented first editions and had claimed to know Herbert Huncke.

After graduating with my BA in English the only job I could find was selling hot dogs at Two Guys and through CETA and some family connections I got a minimum wage job working at a public library. Later on I went to library school, got my MLS, and then found out all the school teachers who couldn't get jobs had become librarians in an overcrowded field. I was determined though, and unlike most people, I could relocate.

New Years Eve I spend in New Brunswick with the old bearded gang. The man who knew Huncke was there. He was living in Denver and wanted me to come there. "Come on man, move to Denver! There's plenty of jobs out there. You've got the mountains, cheap rent, and beautiful women".
. 


I remembered On the Road, then, and decided to follow the beat trail and go to Denver. Like Jack Kerouac I would move to Denver, have adventures, and get a high paying librarian position.

I packed all of my belongings that fit into the Ford Falcon my father gave me (he told me the car was mine if I paid for the brake job). I left for Denver. I picked up a hitch hiker that had a baby. After two days of driving and a night in Hays Kansas, I arrived in Denver. I stayed in a flea bitten hotel downtown and made copies of my resume.

I had only an address for the man who knew Huncke. He apparently hung out at the Muddy Waters of the Platte and worked in the used book store attached to the coffee house. When I got there it was too early and the coffee house was closed. Next door was a building painted in psychedelic colors. I figured there might be a connection between the two places.

I walked in and heard his voice. He was talking, the man who knew Huncke. He was trying to borrow money from the man standing in the doorway of an apartment. I was tempted to flee but I didn't and met up with him. He turned out to be a good, if erratic, friend. I outlasted him in Denver by five years.

America needs to have more babies

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan announced today that the problem with Americans is that we need to have more babies.

Susan: Boy, I'm beat. I need to get some sleep.
Frank: What do you say honey, want to have a baby?
Susan: You can go brush your teeth, Frank, that's the last thing I want to do is have a baby.
Frank: But Susan, the Speaker of the House said that 'Americans need to have more babies'.
Susan: And who's going to pay for these babies?
Frank: I dunno. Just want to do what's best for the country.

Guess it's time we all get together and have more babies. The Speaker of the House said so.

I guess they think I'm a Republican

Ever since I donated money to the campaign of Georgia's Jon Osoff I have been receiving money pleads from Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats. Somehow I got on a Republican list too. Maybe it was my blog from a few years ago. This morning I awoke with an email inviting me to stay at Trump's hotel. I know it's just a contest but it would be fun to have a breakfast brunch with Ivanka.

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Booze and movies

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/booze-women-movies_us_5a25ca7ae4b086e4e503d75c

Apparently Senator Grasley justifies the ending of the estate tax by saying those of us who never had to pay an estate tax spend it all on wine, women and song. Here is a cute article about a man who spends all his money on liquor and the movies. I think living in unionized states also is a sin that needs to be corrected.

The break room

As I approach my last year of meaningful work, it is tempting to start thinking about what I will miss the most. For me, it will be the coffee break. The first time I ever heard about the coffee break was when I was visiting my father's office and saw men lounging about and smoking in this room that looked like a 1930's kitchen.

"Gee Dad, do people really get paid for sitting in this room?"
"Yes, sadly, for most of them the coffee break is the most important time of the day".

The coffee break has its rules. Rules that a new employee has to digest. For example, if you want to avoid the long lines at the cafeteria you sneak down ten minutes early, ideally when your supervisor has stepped away. If you take the break too late you will have to make coffee in the break room or face the prospect of an empty pot.

Sadly, smoking is no longer permitted at the table like it used to be. The smokers have to sit outside of the building. Ah, the break room. Different types of habitués are found there.

There are the break room slobs who leave pieces of food in the sink when they are finished. There are the people who never take their lunch home. They come to work with the goal of saving their budgets and waistlines with a healthy sandwich and salad they made at home. They are coerced into going out for lunch with the gang. Months later, their sandwich is still right where they left it in the refrigerator, now starting to smell. Someone else will have to chuck the sandwich when it becomes their turn to clean out the refrigerator. Cleaning out the refrigerator is a task that is normally assigned to staff on a rotating basis. There is a special place in Heaven for refrigerator committees. Which brings us to those loveable things, the break room signs.  :

                                            A scientists' break room:

 Poor Deborah. Being called out by name in the break room.

 The pleasure of cleaning out the refrigerator is one of the things I will miss the most about work.

It could really happen

Marijuana may become legal in New Jersey. It's hard to believe but it was a pivotal point in Phil Murphy's platform and now he is the governor elect. For an aging baby boomer, it is hard to believe.

Whenever people asked Phil Murphy how he is going to pay for all those pensions, pre kindergarten, and balance the state budget, he said he would legalize marijuana. Even for conservatives who never liked the idea it made sense. Dollars have an evil attraction to the human soul.

Marijuana could be the next casino gambling. When Atlantic City was the only place that had it on the Eastern seaboard the state made out like bandits. Then other states discovered it and Atlantic City became just another tired city with  slot machines and a boardwalk. The same thing could happen now. Two years from now, Red Bank, Montclair, Asbury Park, and Hoboken will be the hip places on the East coast. Greta Gerwig will even make a movie in the state.

Eventually, though,  New York will legalize it and things will be back to where things were.  All the hip people will be back in Brooklyn and L.A. and New Jersey will become just another tired east coast state with Polish ice.

Addenda:
Mother son interactions before and after legalization.
Mother: What did you do at Johnny's house last night?
(Before) Son: Oh we just listened to the Buffalo Springfield and ate apple pie.
(After) Son: Oh we just listened to the Buffalo Springfield and got stoned on Colombian and ate apple pie.

Girls weekends

As I have aged and have inevitably found myself with other people in the over 50 set, I have noticed a disturbing phenomenon, that of  "girls weekends". In this scenario, while the men are patching up the grout in the bathroom or trying out their  deck wash, the women are having "girls weekends". On these excursions the women get together and go to casinos, bars, garden shows, museums and antique shops while the men are left at home.

Yes men may go to the occasional car show or convention, but it seems that women are having more fun than we are. Why aren't men invited to "girls weekends"?   Is it because men of a certain age are bossy, lazy, stay at home curmudgeons? 

Perhaps, alas,  it is because men of a certain age have become bossy, lazy, stay at home curmudgeons, Yes it is true that some of us haven't aged well. Well, off to Lowes. I need to buy some deck wash. 

The eyes on the prize

Cities and states are fighting over the chance to be the location of an Amazon headquarters. New Jersey has just offered seven billion dollars. Every state wants the prize of being Amazon east. Apparently it will bring in lots of high paying jobs and states are willing to put in big incentives.

I propose the Florida Everglades as the next location for Amazon. It is scenic, has lots of snakes and alligators, and would offer the executives lots of culinary options. Instead of a huge building, I would propose the building of hundreds of tree houses, which could serve as work units. There would be plenty of cougars and snakes, which should provide the millenials with cultural diversion. They could build a high speed rail line to Miami so people could hit the clubs on weekends. Taxes are low in Florida and you could take down the tree houses in case of a hurricane.

In this modernistic but also retro office complex, executives could swing from tree to tree to go to meetings. This would provide Amazon with a creative new way for staff to interact. Of course there might be some environmental concern with building in the Everglades  but as they say, you can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs.

I'm part Norwegian and part South Asian

I recently heard from my nephew. He got his results back from Ancestry.com. He found out he was mostly British and Scandinavian and 2% Jew. Coincidentally I just sent in my saliva to 23 and me (they advertise it on YouTube) and am eagerly awaiting my results. Mother always said we were part Native American. Nothing of that nature showed up in my nephews results. We'll see how I do, a little closer to the source.

I guess it's just good clean fun. Like anything, people will want to take advantage of things. My nephew will want to take Ros Hosanna off now. Students who discover they are 4% of something will want to apply for scholarships for that group now.

It could also be a way to assuage white guilt. "I'm 2 % hispanic and I never applied for Affirmative action!" I'm 4 % black and I was never stopped by a cop for "driving while black!" or "I can't be racist, I'm 2% East Indian!" "No wonder I'm oversexed. I'm part neanderthal."

Editor's note: Finally got my report. My father was not all Italian but was also French and German. Contrary to what my mother said, I have no Native American blood. Apparently Grandpa Taylor was part hispanic. I am less than average Neanderthal.

I'd take a knee if I didn't have bursitus

I just don't understand all this business about taking a knee. For the money they make, football players should not only stand but sing "Yankee doodle dandy" at the start of the games.

And as for our president, I don't see any change. Those Mexicans are still across the street, working on their cars til 3am. Those women with head coverings are still there at the supermarket, and believe you me, they aren't nuns.

At least there is someone out there who makes sense. The next senator for Alabama, and as for me, our next president, Roy Moore. I've admired him for putting the Ten Commandments on the court house lawn. And he puts his God where he belongs, especially when it comes to Gay school teachers and transvestites in bathrooms and the like. For my money, he tells it the way it should be told. Halleluia!

Editor's note: For all the fans of Aunt Agnes she has returned to do a guest blog. 

Netflix Internet

Again, I have moved a bit further into the 21st century. I have given up the cozy system of getting red envelopes with a DVD every month and moved to the new world of online Netflix. I seemed to find less and less I wanted in the old system and I was tempted to explore the new Netflix. I wanted to see the Gilmore Girls a year in the life, Chelsey Handler, and lots of other things I've seen reviews for but not experienced. My favorite so far is Love, produced by Judd Apatow of Girls fame. I like Bossgirl too.

I also bought a Chromecast gizmo. This allows me to watch Internet programming on my TV. It took awhile to set up but it seems to be working now. Youtube also benefits from this new gizmo. So far I have seen over half of the Jeeves series this way.

So how are the shows? I guess so far it's a mixed bag. I was disappointed with the Gilmore Girls. Remakes are never as good as the originals. Remember the New Leave it to Beaver and Mayberry RFD?

So I am still sampling the new programming.  Some of the shows are pretty bad, though. Friend from College? Atypical? M'yeh. Clearly a lot of the shows are trying to appeal to that elusive millennial demographic. Still for ten bucks a month it's not bad. And now I feel like a member of the middle class again.

Advice for college students

It's that time when students go back to school. I saw this advice and thought I would respond with my memories of Freshman year at Rutgers. 

1. No accidents (i.e. children). That means no unprotected sex. You don’t want to be a parent. Your parents don’t want to be grandparents, just yet. And your friend’s parents don’t want to be grandparents either. That was certainly a problem I didn't have as a Freshman. 

2. No means no — always.

3. Don’t go places alone.  I went everywhere alone. Men used to try to pick me up in Times Square but that didn't stop me from wondering around hither and thither. 

4. Don’t forget the reason why you’re at college — to get an education. Strive to make Dean’s list. You won’t regret it. But also feel free to explore subjects and do things that might interest you.  I think I did make the Dean's list as a Freshman. It was Sophmore year I started to goof off. 

5. Have fun but not too much fun. Don’t ever wake up with Sharpie pictures or letters on your face or body. That means you got drunk and passed out first and your friends punked you.  I was basicly a good boy.

6. Don’t smoke pot. It will suck all your drive and ambition out of you. Same with taking Adderall recreationally.  They didn't have adderall then but I did indulge in the other. 

7. Free time is not free time. Go to the library and study in between classes, and after dinner. Right.

8. Learn how to say no to invitations. You won’t ruin your college experience if you don’t go to parties Sunday through Wednesday. There’s a party every night somewhere. True, if you call sitting in a dorm room with guys and smoking pot a party.

9. Develop a relationship with your professors. Visit them during office hours, before midterms. Get to know them on a first-name basis — all of them, including the TAs Right

10. Get plenty of exercise and sleep. Maybe even join intramural teams and/or a club team. I slept well, and did walk around a lot. 

11. Try to establish a routine.  The best thing about college is there is no routine. Class attendance was voluntary in those heady days. 

12. Study in the library. The dorm can be too noisy at times.  That is true. 

13. Study and hang out with people who share the same goals as you. Don’t be afraid to develop a passion for what you are learning. Passion? My college friends were all cynical about education.

14. Listen to NPR on TuneIn in the morning or whenever. They didn't have NPR back then. I listened to WBAI but the signal was weak at school.

15. Read the local and school newspapers. Right.

16. Write for the school newspaper. I did that as a Freshman, Sophomore year I discovered radio.

17. Don’t spend your college years binge-watching Netflix or Hulu or HBO Go. That’s not necessarily what your parents are paying for. You could do that at home — for a lot less money.  We didn't have tv in the dorms, Internet or cell phones at school in my day. We had stereos for entertainment. 

18. Read and do the school’s bucket list.  I think I went into the telescope once. 

19. Don’t forget to speak up in class. Don’t be a wallflower. Ask questions and answer questions.  I was brave in class. 

20. Stay off your cellphone in class. You don’t have to Snapchat each and every activity during the day, especially when you’re in class.  Not available in my day. 

21. Never leave your drink unattended and don’t drink mysterious alcoholic concoctions. If possible drink beer from a bottle or tap that you watch being poured.  I was never that paranoid. Sure, I'll pop a psilocybin!

22. Go home on the weekends with kids who live locally.  I had to take the bus to New York than take a Jersey bus. 

23. Check the school’s events calendar daily. Don’t be afraid to go to a museum or concert or sports event (women’s ice hockey comes to mind) you might not typically go to. I saw Chick Corea and Malvina Reynolds as a Freshman.

24. Some of the students you meet freshman year are likely to become lifelong friends. You may not realize what that means today, but someday you will.  God knows what happened to my Freshman friends. 

25. When in doubt about this or that decision or action, ask what your future self would make of your decision or action. Would your future self have regret or be proud? Avoid regrets and trips to the emergency room, police station and court.  Nothing like a visit to the emergency room 

Goodbye to the mooch

Goodbye, Anthony Scaramucci, affectionately known as the mooch. As an Italian American I was very proud of the mooch and thought of him as an excellent role model for young Italian men. Tough, handsome, rich, he told it as he saw it and brought a breath of fresh air to the otherwise dull Trump administration.  He fought for the little guy and was true to the little people from whom he came. The mooch cared about us.

Editor's note: A new blog on eclipses is in my Sixties blog.

Grantchester

Season 3 is over for Grantchester. Wedding bells for the maid and no wedding for the vicar.  I don't know what made me start watching the show. Maybe it was on when there was nothing else on on a Sunday night and I got into the habit. A little crazy to think of a vicar in a small town solving crimes but I'm a sucker for shows about rural England. I think the combination of beautiful scenery and annnoying people works for me.

Maybe it's the politics of England, but sin comes out badly in this series. The gay vicar remains a vicar and non celibate only in his dreams. The philandering detective goes back to home and hearth. Sidney decides to keep his collar and throw overboard the love of his life, a divorced mother. I know it was the fifties but you'd think he could have become a Unitarian or something. Then the show's producers  might have gotten in trouble with the Anglican church, I suppose. At any rate, the possibility of a season four is still looming. Quien sabe.

Storage bins

The trailer where I am to put my stuff.

Every Christmas when I go down to my little storage bin in the basement I say, "You know, some time I should clear out some of this junk!" A nice project for when I retire.

Well, last week I had a notice on my door saying "All storage bins must be emptied in two weeks. There is a trailer that has temporary storage bins for your convenience. This will allow us to rebuild the basement and physical plant of your building. Thank you for your cooperation."  A quick perusal indicated that the temporary storage bins had maybe 40 % of the space of the old bins. Looks like somebody is going to get some exercise. Oh, I wish I had a son.

I have been methodical, doing a little bit at a time. Some moldy boxes for appliances that I no longer own (or at the very least are well beyond warranty) have been thrown in the recycle bin. Luckily there was room. I have found a lot of old Christmas cards, decorations,  and two plastic Christmas trees. I have found an air pump for the air mattress I no longer have along with a beloved old tent I used in Denver and upstate New York as well as a newer tent I have never used.

I often wondered what ever happened to my 35 mm camera. After I got a digital camera it was disused and ended up in the storage area. One day I'm going to take up film photography. Look there is a musical t shirt. Probably needs batteries.

I have discovered I have a spare pair of Venetian blinds, left by the old owners. I can use those. I have found a bookcase left by the old owners too. I can use that in my home office. I really shouldn't have spare paper and paper towels sprawled on the floor. A little wax and I can spruce things up a bit with that. Have to find out if is steady enough to support weight. Look, a spare kitchen cabinet I didn't know I had. Happily it fit in the temporary quarters.

Finally, the project is finished, I'm not in traction, and I can now look down on my neighbors who have yet to clear out their bins. They'll be okay though. They have sons.

Editor's note: When projects come up that involve physical labor it is handy to have sons. People with sons actually know there is a great disappointment when their son is in California and they have to pay a kid to do the job.

Coda: I have finally been allowed to empty out my storage bin and schlep the stuff into the old storage bins. After I did this my neighbor knocked on my door to tell me I had used her storage bin. I hadn't noticed that the new storage bins are numbered now. I moved my stuff to the correct storage bin. Oh boy I have two artificial Christmas trees I had forgotten about.

Casual Mondays

We all know about "Casual Fridays" at work and are usually told explicitly what not to wear. "No cutoffs, exposed navels, exposed undies, unclean trousers, etc."

My question is about those days that are sort of like Fridays but not really Fridays. These are the days most people are not at work at all, because they immediately precede a holiday. For example, this coming Monday is between Sunday and the Fourth of July. Most people will not come in anyway, but for those loyal souls who do come in on Monday, is it permissible to treat it like a "Casual Friday" even if it's a Monday?

Of course, most people are of the give em an inch and they'll take a mile variety. They know they can get away with coming in dressed as they please on Monday because no one who could possibly care will be in anyway. Unwritten rules allow for liberal interpretations, in the opinion of staff,  including the extending of "Casual Friday" dress to any day before a holiday.

On Monday people will bring their children to work with them, take extended pizza breaks with fresh pizza in the breakroom, and skip out at least fifteen minutes early. I hope they don't trip on the stairs in their flip-flops.

Stop hiding your aging neck

It's that time of the year, at least for those of us who are too  cheap for premium channels, when the pickings on tv are pretty slim. It seems every night when I glide across the cable offerings I come upon "Stop hiding your aging neck". This show is starting to interest me.

When I think about problems I have, hiding my aging neck does not seem to be one of them. Perhaps it should be.  Is that why I spend Friday nights alone? Is it my aging neck? Perhaps it is an avant garde program disguised as a bad infomercial. I will have to watch it.

Editor's note: Finally watched "Stop hiding your aging neck". Especially liked the never before aired bondage scenes from the Gilmore Girls.

I must be on my way to that fateful age

I've been warned that as I approach my sixty fifth birthday I'll be deluged with mailings from companies wanting me to buy their Medicare supplemental plans. When my father came close to sixty five the same things happened to him. My mother commented when she got a letter from Lorne Greene, "I thought he was dead!"

Some of the mailings look quite official and make you think. "Oops I better open this official piece of mail." Then you notice on the corner in tiny print it says, "Not affiliated with any government agency". Fooled me!

Actually it is an important and unfortunately, an expensive decision. Perhaps the best decision is to do nothing and rely upon the goodwill of the government to provide. 😄