Predictions 2020 on Dec 31, 2019

This is my tenth anniversary predictions blog. It was a good year for a lot of things but not for my prognostications. In general, I was too pessimistic. I said the Eagles would not be in the hunt, and as of now they are very much in the hunt, even in the playoffs. Interest rates are lower today than a year ago, contrary to my prediction. I predicted Mike Pence would be our president at the end of this year, also wrong. Trade sanctions with China appear to be diminishing, which I did predict. Last year I predicted Microsoft would be selling at 120, much below the end of year high of 158.

 Entity:              Dec 31, 2018:      Dec 31, 2019:

                                                     as I predicted.
Dow Jones               23327               26000
S and P                      2507                2900
NAS                          6635                7000
Oil                              45.81              70
Unemployed              4.1%               4.5%
Microsoft                  101.57             120

 Entity:                Today:              Dec 31, 2020:

Dow Jones               28538             30000
S and P                        3231                3500
NAS                            8973                9100
Oil                              61.21                70
Unemployed             3.5%             4.5%
Microsoft                  157.7                 170

For the end of 2020 I see Joseph Biden as the president elect. The Eagles will have a wild car slot. The new decade will be up and down on stocks. It will end with a slight gain. Brexit will finally happen and add tariffs to British trade transactions and lead to a slight contraction in their economy.  Global warming will get worse but the USA will begin a slow return to normalcy. Happy New Years.

Why does Santa ride on a fire truck?

One tradition that we have in America that they don't have anywhere else in the world is that of a fire truck roaring through the neighborhood with Santa. It is a tradition unique to our country. If you were to ask me what I like best about the Christmas season, it is the fire trucks screaming through the condos and the waving of Santa. Why this became a tradition I do not know.  It is one of the mysteries of life along with why Andrew Yang is in the presidential debates. 

I now have an Echo

Occasionally, I list the things that a successful baby boomer should have in his possession. The last time I wrote on this topic I announced that I was catching up with my peers, I even had a Roomba, albeit an old one,  but still lacked the latest thing, an Echo.

Like a lot of my peers I viewed Alexa as creepy and something that I certainly did not need. Recently though, I have been doing chores in the kitchen and wished I could listen to pod casts while cooking or washing clothes,  as well as  have access to more radio stations than my vintage clock radio provided.

Last week I got a birthday present from a distant relative, and what should it contain but, an Echo!👲 I am now up to date (I still don't have an ex wife and a daughter with a summer place but you can't have everything). I now have a friend I can talk to who lives in my kitchen.

To be honest, at sixty dollars, it is a bargain. I understand it is a loss leader to sell more products, but even if you just use the free stuff it is useful. I can now say, "Alexa, play the Slate political gabfest" and it will. I can ask to play a radio station and it does. I can set a time alarm, find the weather, get a new Spanish word for the day, hear the Dow average, and get a recipe for Mince pie. It doesn't have a large music library unless you pay extra, but if you have ordered music from Amazon over the years it will play songs from those purchases.

I have to admit it feels creepy talking to the thing, a man alone in the kitchen talking to his new friend. I guess I can say it added a new skill to my resume. Supervising an artificial  friend.

Editor's note: No I don't have Spotify  but that is permissible for a baby boomer, if not for someone under 50.

Is it by Churchill or will I have to sell my uncles farm in Normandy?

Netscape has a tendency to thrust on us unfunny comedy specials, silly millennial sitcoms and schmaltzy Christmas specials.  Still, by searching through the caverns of its fare, one can occasionally find an obscure show that is good for a few laughs.

My latest find is the very British "Fake or Fortune". It shows how a painting's provenance is analyzed using high technology, talking to families associated with the history of the work, and listening to the opinions of art specialists. The specialists criticized one Churchill work by noting that the Prime Minister sucked at drawing people and that the  people in the painting in question are too well executed.

The thing I like most about the show is when they interview people who have some connection to the work. Here we are given a rare look at the gentry of England with their posh accents,  living in genteel poverty in grand castles with bad plumbing.

Fiona will ask Philip "Oh dear perhaps if we could meet the daughter of the Earl of Thwickham they could tell us if the painting was in their uncle's will." Then we go to a beautiful room with chandeliers and Chippendales (but I suspect poor wireless) and get to meet  a dear eighty year old woman who sadly tells us that the wills were destroyed in the fire of 1949.

In an attempt to add drama to the story, our hearts are usually tugged at by the news that if the painting is real the owners will be able to salvage the horse farm in Sussex or bring the castle up to code. We are made to really feel for old moneyed Britishers whose lives will be so much better if only they can prove that the Monet in their possession is the real McCoy.

Editor's note: Sorry for all the Netflix reviews. I need to get out more. Now they are trying to get me to watch a Christmas show in German with subtitles. Fake or Fortune is also on YouTube.

How America ruined England

I've been happily advancing through season 3 of the Crown. Like most Americans, I find the trials of tribulations of Britain to be entertaining and satisfying, perhaps even more than our tawdry history here in the colonies. Sadly if unintentionally, many of the problems that appear in the Crown can be traced to America. Episode after episode shows how the glory that was Britannia has been laid low by the influence of those ruffians across the Atlantic.

Wallis Simpson, an American, is the first person to try to take the Royals away from their mission by stealing their future king. Then the Americans had to come in and win the war against the Nazi's, much to olde Winston's chagrin. Then, hat in hand, they had to beg America for money and used dear Lady Margaret to lure it out of the hands of that awful American president from Texas.

Prince Philip gave an embarrassing interview on the American TV show, Meet the Press, and caused much consternation at Buckingham Palace. Harold Wilson happily is shown destroying the small town commerce of Britain by opening an American style supermarket.

Today, beyond the scope of the Crown, the indignities continue. We have an American TV star married to a prince. We have dear Prince Andrew brought down by an American businessman and purveyor of underage delicacies. If only the Americans had kept their rock and roll, Walmarts, and other corrupting  influences on their side of the Atlantic, Britain would be much happier than it is today.

Quid Pro Quo

If there is one good thing that has come out of the Impeachment hearings, it's that all of us now know what "Quid Pro Quo" means. I'm waiting for someone to name a bar after the term, perhaps in a place frequented by lawyers.

Truthfully, we all live by quid pro quo everyday. We get something we want in return for something we reluctantly give. Our parents want us to go to Aunt Clara and Uncle Ben's 50th wedding anniversary. We see how we can use this to our advantage and the next thing you know we have borrowed the boat for the weekend.

Our son is complaining about needing a new pair of sneakers. We get him to agree to go to Aunt Bertha's house for her birthday. The son gets his sneakers and Aunt Bertha gets to see her favourite nephew. Quid pro Quo.

Our boss wants us to go to a meeting. We don't want to go. Our boss lets us take the day after Thanksgiving off. We go to the meeting. Quid pro Quo.

Unfulfilled quid pro quo can get a bit murky. Is it quid pro quo if the kid gets the sneakers and then gets a cold on the birthday of dear Aunt Bertha?  Our girlfriend wants  us to visit her parents, we go, but that night  she cuts off our sexual advances. That is thwarted quid pro quo. Sine qua non? 

California and the American dream

Northern California, as well as the Los Angeles area are experiencing the twin disasters of fire and power outages. They say that things always happen first in California and it looks like the damage from climate warming are coming there first.

Among my friends at college, the general view of where to move after college was decidedly in favor of California, or at least, the west. "F--k New Jersey" they all said. "I'm getting out of here to where the chicks are good looking and the air is clean. California is where I'm heading." Moving to Califiornia has always been the American dream.  I know there's an old expression, be careful of what you wish for.