Saying goodbye to the holidays

 

Now it's time to start throwing out Christmas effluvia. As well as finding space on my limited table tops and cabinets for my new possessions. As a kid I remember taking down the Christmas tree while singing Christmas carols backwards. Anyhoo, here is a link to a stirring and moving poem I wrote about the end of the season. 

How will 2024 work out

A year ago, I prognosticated a moderate increase in the market. I was far too pessimistic compared to what actually happened.  

My predictions for December 31, 2023:

Dow Jones           36000

S and P                4500

NASDAQ           10800

Unemployed         5%

Microsoft             300

Texas Crude Oil    90

CPI                       5%

Here are the end of year numbers for 2023:

Dow Jones           37690

S and P                4770

NASDAQ           15011

Unemployed         3.7%

Microsoft             376

Texas Crude Oil    71.32

CPI                       3.1%

Here are my predictions for the end of year 2024:

Dow Jones           40000

S and P                4850

NASDAQ           17800

Unemployed         5%

Microsoft             400

Texas Crude Oil    90

CPI                       3%

Recommendation: Small cap mutual funds 

In 2024 the Eagles will get killed off in the playoffs, Biden will be re-elected, the media will tire of AI but reference librarians will be nervous about their jobs. Russia will sign a treaty giving them Crimea and some land in eastern Ukraine, but NATO type troops will sit at the hard border guaranteeing most of that country relative security. 

Christmas grumbling

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From a few years back, an oldie but goodie. This blog talks about the pleasure of giving cruel Christmas gifts.

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Being on the receiving end of present giving, I would like to grumble about food baskets. They are fine in the corporate world but should not be hoisted on unsuspecting family members. The basket is too big and I never know what to do with them. They are filled with crummy confetti (comprising 90% of the volume of the basket) and the the sizes of the packages make an airline look generous.

Editor's note: Friday evening we will have the end of year stock numbers. Probably have my predictions out early Saturday. I know a lot of money managers rely on them. 😉

Christmas letters I still send out Christmas cards and having no spouse or children I am at a loss on what to say. Thankfully I travel and my travels at least give me something to recount on my Christmas card notes.

the Day After Thanksgiving

The day after Thanksgiving, now called "Black Friday," is one of America's half holidays. Some people get it off, some people don't get it off. The schools are off, some, but not all, businesses are off. Retail is open and most stores, at least the places I went to today, were extremely busy. The mall was jammed with people. Not just with lookey loos either, there were long lines to buy things at J.C. Penneys. J.C. Penneys! I thought it had died!

At the mall, I bought a couple of calendars, an easy holiday gift for people who are hard to buy for. And I got the second one for half price. The Chinese food was good and luckily, I found the last empty table in the food court.

I have many memories of this day. It was the day my mother took my brother and me to Radio City Music Hall on a bus where we saw a movie and the Rockettes Christmas Show. At my first job in a library I was put on the periodical desk where I was extremely busy pulling magazines. This day used to be very busy one in public libraries. The kids, home from university, would gather there and in the stores downtown and regale each other with college stories.

For families, the day after Thanksgiving can be a disjointed day. The kids are off, Daddy is off, but Mommy can be chained to her desk at the office.

In Denver I worked in an office where the fathers all came around on this day to collect Mommy's paycheck and the family had a quick lunch together in the cafeteria. I was entrusted with writing a column for the Denver branch in the house organ, Title Data Deeds I wrote in my little column how nice it was to meet all the fathers and children on the day after Thanksgiving. Quietly the next year the staff got that day off. I always attributed this change in the schedule to my witticism.

Editor's note: I never understood why libraries are now closed on this day.

Oh to have children

The other day I had a morning doctor appointment and I had to use the ice scraper to get my windshield clean. "Oh", I said, "To have a daughter. She would pick me up at home and whisk me to the doctor's and sit dutifully with me at the office. She would impress the other patients with her daughterly helpfulness. Last summer I looked out on my backyard and said, "Oh to have a son to mow the lawn".

As I stand in the kitchen cutting onions and peppers I say, "Oh I wish I had a daughter. She would have me over for dinner and fill my refigerator with leftovers for the next week." As I check the air in my tires I say "Oh, to have a son to do this for me!"

I talked to someone who has children. She hears, "Oh Mom can you help me with the rent? The dentist bill was higher than I thought." From her son she hears, "Oh Mom, Little Mary has her heart set on dancing lessons and could you help us out a little with this one? You'll be invited to her recitals."

I asked my friend if they helped with the lawn and the car. She asked me on what planet did I live on.

This morning I was woken up by the neighbor's barking Fox terrier. Oh to have a dog!

The Beatles and the Rolling Stones are back

I see that Paul is making more money. Calling back George and John from the dead to add to the discography Okay, the track isn’t bad by I suspect the two of them would not be happy.

The Stones have really gone hog wild on promoting their new album. It’s so weird to see them all over the tv. And they’re so nice! Personally, I like the old image of them pissing in gas stations and getting arrested. Even in the 70s there was a black curtain over their personal lives. Now Keith sounds like a retired fireman.

Have only heard album in bits and pieces. Sounds okay. Nice to have Bill Wyman’s bass adding to the band. Thought the gospel thing with Lady Gaga is nice. At what you think is the end you get a “let’s just let the tape stay on” three minutes of coda. Picture is of the Stones new drummer, Steve Jordan. He was on David Letterman and SNL. Who knew?

Of smoke detectors, crickets, and fire codes

 Last night I heard a beeping noise in my condo. It sounded like a smoke detector needing a battery but I was certain it wasn't since my smoke detector was now wired to the electricity and it was not beeping. I went to the source of the noise and decided I must have a cricket. I had a cricket in my place years ago so I sprayed my home office with roach spray and assumed by the morning I would have a dead, but quiet, cricket. 

The following morning I heard the beeping sound again. I did a closer inspection of my home office and discovered an old smoke detector on a shelf that was making all of the noise. I had a spare battery and I installed it and it should be quiet again for another year.

A year ago I got a notice that I was due for an inspection from a representative of the state to test my smoke and carbon monoxide detectors. I have received these visitations in the past and the man would push the buttons on the things, they would beep loudly, and I would be home free for another five years.

This time, the man informed me that I was not in compliance since battery operated smoke detectors were no longer permissible in condos in New Jersey. They had to be hard wired to the electricity. Turns out there was wiring right above the smoke detector, but previous tenants had taken the easy way out and just put a battery-operated smoke detector in its place. 

I went to Home Depot and bought a wired smoke detector. Coming into my place with a package containing my new smoke detector the inspector took pity on me and helped set up my new smoke detector. I put the old one on a shelf in my home office but kept the battery in. I completely forgot that it was there until it started beeping. I need to air my home office now because it smells like insect repellant.