End of year predictions 2024 going into 2025

 

A year ago, I prognosticated a moderate increase in the market. I was far too pessimistic compared to what actually happened.  

Here were my predictions for the end of year 2024:

Dow Jones           40000

S and P                4850

NASDAQ           17800

Unemployed         5%

Microsoft             400

Texas Crude Oil    90

CPI                       3%

Recommendation: Small cap mutual funds Midling results.

Here are the end of year numbers, 2024:

Dow Jones           42544

S and P                5882

NASDAQ           19311

Unemployed         4.2%

Microsoft             421.5

Texas Crude Oil    71.8

CPI                       2.7%

My predictions for the end of year, 2025:

Dow Jones           45169

S and P                6275

NASDAQ           22530

Unemployed        5.2%

Microsoft             440

Texas Crude Oil    90

CPI                       3%

In 2024 I predicted Biden would be re-elected, didn't happen, Russia would sign a treaty giving them Crimea and some land in eastern Ukraine, but NATO type troops would sit at the hard border guaranteeing most of that country relative security, didn't happen. Again, I under-rated the market. 

This year with Trump president and all the weird people around him it's hard to predict the market. My guess is that the tariffs, the expulsion of aliens and other such things will be attempted but done in a half assed way that does not change the status quo too much unless you are dependent on Medicaid. The Eagles will not be in the Superbowl in January.